Inventory math

Lost Sales Calculator

What an empty shelf actually cost: the orders that went to a competitor, net of the customers who waited.

Lost sales = stockout days × daily sales × (1 − recapture rate) × price. When a SKU goes dark, most of its demand doesn’t wait for you. Twelve stockout days at 20 units a day is 240 missed orders; if 20% of buyers return after restock, 192 sales are gone for good — $6,720 of revenue at a $35 price, while about $1,680 comes back later. That revenue figure is the number to weigh against the cost of the safety stock or faster reorder that would have prevented it. Enter your outage length, run rate, price, and recapture rate to price the gap.

Lost Sales Calculator — your numbers

Revenue lost

$6,720.00

Sales lost (units)

192

Revenue recaptured later

$1,680.00

Estimate only. Results reflect exactly the numbers you enter — verify against your own accounting before making pricing decisions.

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Worked examples

Two-week outage on a core SKU

Stockout days 12
Average daily sales 20
Selling price $35.00
Recapture rate 20%
Revenue lost $6,720.00
Sales lost (units) 192
Revenue recaptured later $1,680.00

240 missed orders, 192 gone for good: $6,720 of revenue lost.

Short outage, loyal buyers

Stockout days 5
Average daily sales 40
Selling price $25.00
Recapture rate 30%
Revenue lost $3,500.00
Sales lost (units) 140
Revenue recaptured later $1,500.00

High recapture softens the blow, but 140 lost units still cost $3,500.

Frequently asked questions

How do I calculate lost sales from a stockout?

Multiply the days out of stock by the daily sales rate the product had while in stock — that is the demand that went unmet — then subtract the share of buyers who waited and purchased after restock. Use the pre-stockout run rate, not the calendar average that includes the outage, or you will undercount the loss. The remainder times your selling price is the revenue that walked.

What recapture rate should I assume?

On marketplaces like Amazon, assume low — often 5–15% — because the buy box simply shows a competitor and the customer never knows you existed. On your own store with a strong brand, back-in-stock emails, and few substitutes, 25–40% is achievable. If you run back-in-stock notifications, your actual click-to-purchase data after restocks is the best estimate you will ever get.

Are lost sales the full cost of a stockout?

No — they are the visible part. A stockout also freezes your ad campaigns mid-learning, drops marketplace rankings that took months to earn, and hands competitors customers who may reorder from them for years. The stockout cost calculator takes the annual view instead: gross lost revenue with no recapture assumed, converted to lost profit, plus the recovery spend it takes to win position back; for repeat-purchase products the long-term customer loss can exceed the immediate hit.

How do I prevent lost sales without drowning in inventory?

Work the two levers that cause stockouts: reorder too late and buffer too thin. Set a reorder point from your real end-to-end lead time, size safety stock from your actual demand and lead-time variability, and give A-items the generous buffers while letting C-items run lean. Compare this calculator’s loss figure with the carrying cost of the extra buffer — for fast movers the buffer usually wins by a wide margin.

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